Each Baccarat or Craps system should consist of two parts: a bet selection method and a money management system.
Bet selection is defined as the process of selecting the winning decision (player or banker) in baccarat or (passing or not) in craps. There are many methods that experienced players prefer. Some like to follow the shoe in baccarat or the role in craps. By this we mean that the player bets the same as the previous decision. Another favorite method of choosing which side to bet on is the decision last. Pattern recognition lures many players while looking for convincing patterns. Streak play has taken many systems into the baccarat game.
Mathematically, Baccarat seems to offer the most hope. Since the game is played from a shoe that is generally not shaken until a baccarat game has ended. The mathematical types explain that there is dependence in the baccarat game. Dependency means that if the first half of the baccarat shoe is played, it is necessary to determine the composition of the second half of the baccarat shoe. Therefore, in the second part of the shoe we should be able to develop a bit ahead of the house, because we already know which cards were played in the first half of the shoe (of course we would have to keep up somehow to know this ). Card counting was a pioneer and successfully used in blackjack was tried in baccarat. The result was slightly positive but very disappointing because the player advantage was very small. My advice about counting baccarat cards; don’t waste your time, it won’t work.
Other methods of removing the “dependency” from the baccarat game have been explored.
Dr. S.H. Johnson conducted extensive computer research using large amounts of live baccarat data. He studied thousands of recurring patterns in relation to the shoe’s (banker’s or player’s) dominance when the pattern occurred. He was able to gain an advantage that was only slightly less than created by counting cards in blackjack. Dr. Johnson reports that the practical limitation of this baccarat strategy is the very rare occurrence of gambling opportunities. This spurred the casino’s patience when he took off two-thirds of a shoe before posting his privileged game. The game required very large bets and a large bankroll to generate a modest profit. The good doctor concluded that the strategy was more of a moral victory than a practical solution for taking advantage of the baccarat game.
Some players take a unique approach based on the continuity of numbers in a game with a negative expectation, such as the baccarat or craps game. The concept of continuity of numbers behind this approach emerges every time we analyze the data on the keyframe computer. This is not to say that the concept will give you the infallible gambling system. Here is the basic idea. Let’s say we went to the casino with a group of researchers and registered every roll of the dice at the craps table 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 6 months. That would amount to thousands of dice rolls. Let’s discuss, let’s say 6 months of continuous recording represents 650,000 roles or decisions. Suppose an individual researcher turns 102 years old and went to the casino every day of his life for 80 years of his life. Every day I recorded 10 minutes of craps rolls at the craps table (not even the same table every day!). For our little discussion, let’s say that the 80 years of 10 minutes a day yielded the number of decisions, the same 650,000 as the group of 24/7 researchers in 6 months.
Let’s take both data sets and enter our computer. The computer analyzes the data using the mathematical model of the game. We analyze the pattern distribution, the occurrence of numbers and all percentages. We calculate the casino’s advantage over the player (ie: pass line 1.42%, don’t pass 1.40%, etc.). The computer runs for a few minutes and spits out the two reports; Report 1- the “24/7 6-month data” and report 2- the “10 minutes a day for 80 years of data”. What do you think the difference will be? NOTHING !! That’s right, the statistics and numbers will be the same.
What can we learn from this? As players we only play one big craps game and one big baccarat game in our life (if those are your games). You form a continuity of numbers that during the life of your game will always try to match the game’s morphology or mathematical distribution. At any time, different aspects (patterns and numbers) will deviate from their normal mathematical distribution in the game. For example, let’s say we played 1,000,000 hands of baccarat in our lifetime game. We know because we recorded all those suckers on scorecards and entered them into our computer after every game session. [the pros call this procedure “cataloging their game”]
Every night after entering his data, the player turns on his trusted computer analysis program. A report is derived; for example, he finds out that patterns of seven bank decisions in row 6 are left with standard deviations that occur in “his game”. The professional player has a coveted strategy to play the deviations in his game. He knows that the deviation will eventually return to the equipartition. IT ALWAYS DOES, in the end! Don’t run to the casino just yet. The big question is how long will the pattern remain absent before returning to the game’s normal distribution model?
NO, I am not going to answer you. Something to think about, huh? Interestingly, the player does not consider a game as a shoe of baccarat or two hours of craps play, but as the full continuity of all decisions he has played. FACT: This is HIS game; the only game he can ever play. You could say, this makes the idea that we often hear … “my system may not win in the long run, but I only play for a few hours a day, so it doesn’t matter”. In this negative expectation, casino games cannot escape the continuity of figures about an ever increasing exposure to the game. Billion casinos are built every year on the impregnable morphology of these games with negative expectations (reserving the dependency argument in baccarat and that strategy you can develop!)
We recommend that you start designing and testing your baccarat or craps system with a concentration on your bet selection methodology. By that I mean, if you test your strategy, use a flat bet or neutral money management. A flat bet means that the bet is the same amount for each hand of baccarat or each roll of the dice. You cannot beat a game with negative expectations with money management. In the long run, your bet selection should yield more winning hands or reels than losers. When the player achieves this, we say he has a positive expectation or player advantage over the casino. When the player has the advantage, almost any type of money management works. However, let’s repeat this again: if there is no player advantage on the bet selection, no money management system, no matter how smart it is, it will turn a negative expectation into a positive one.
Can we still play even though we don’t have a positive advantage? YES! It’s called gambling. If you have a player advantage, then gambling really isn’t the case? Most recreational players play without a player advantage. The system you play and how you manage your money is critical if you want to achieve some nice winning sessions and not lose all your money every time you go to the casino. Actually, you could be a lifetime winner without a player advantage if you went to the casino table, got an incredible chance of luck (it does happen) that your bets were maximized (progress). If you have a $ 35,000 lead, you quit and never gamble again! Congratulations, you just kicked the butt of the casino! This will not happen to most of us. We’ll be back for sure! We better develop a system that is favorable or close by and have a money management system that limits our exposure to only a small percentage of our bankroll.
Most professional gamblers use a percentage money management system. These systems are based on extreme discipline and constant monitoring of a person’s bankroll. Only a predetermined percentage of each varying bankroll is wagered. Learn the game you play, learn the system you play and then learn discipline, learn discipline, learn discipline … yes, it is so important. If you can’t learn to control your emotions, destroy yourself at the gambling table. If you don’t control your impulses and emotions, don’t waste your time gambling. You take on a big challenge. Like anything else worth doing, you have to pay your dues. Only then can you become one of the few real winners! Enjoy it!