It is much more fun to play by winning. The public generally sees anyone betting on horse racing as a gambler, translating a “loser.” With my early Computer Group success, I have never considered myself a gambler or a loser.
You need to approach racing with the mindset of a stock market analyst. If you look at it any other way, yours is just another compulsive gambler. (Sorry if anyone is offended, but we have to keep it real) Racing is a new financial market that is slowly catching up with the rest of the world.
With the invention of peer-to-peer exchange games, racing can be attacked, conquered and beaten defensively. Advanced algorithms we use in our computer programs still have a definite advantage over the public. We are not talking about the software you buy for £ 49.95 on the internet, but proprietary databases run by mainframe computers.
Think out of the box, be a control
To beat the bookmakers and flogging the public, you have to “think out of the box” and do the opposite of what they do. This is achieved only by contrarian thinking. Instead of betting horses on winning, like the rest of cattle, become a bookmaker and take a stand against public opinion by putting horses to win. If you are a beginner to all this, let me quickly explain that you can either back a horse in any case, which means you are playing to win. Conversely, I take a contrarian stance against you, which means I put your horse to lose.
When you back, you bet 10 to win 50. I choose to be on the other side by putting £ 50 to win 10. Sounds crazy. I beg you to risk a lot to only gain a little. Don’t leave just yet, we’re just in the running. Think about it, all your losing friends bet horses to win year in and year out. Are they retired and living on a golf course, offshore in paradise, as I am? Or would they rather borrow money from YOU every week until payday.
Las Vegas casinos and bookmakers welcome all participants to bet anything they want on racehorses. Look on the internet, hundreds of casinos give you a bonus if you promise to lose money with them. Maybe these casinos and bookmakers are onto something. Bookmakers are successful because they understand the mathematical odds of racing and sports betting. We started in 1979 and have spent years learning the exact math of what constitutes a loser. Most people can’t figure out a system that is foolproof and mathematically correct. Math geniuses are few and far between.
Let’s take a closer look at this proposal. You are in the position to be David versus Goliath when you back a horse to win. To win, everything has to go your way absolutely. You have to trust the coach. Has he placed his horse correctly in a race with his friends. (His friends, of course, are other horses that he can beat) Then the jockey should give you a perfect ride. Do not go soon, do not be closed, do not go too fast, he is an apprentice. Ouch, and don’t go too slow, or go too late, and most importantly. Don’t fall off.
The horse must also cooperate to collect you. I must have wanted to run today. These new flashers or tongue ties have to work. What about the deep muddy track or artificial surface he has run well on before? He cannot be cracked by a new track surface that is new to him. There are a million more little trifles that can separate you from your cash.
Let me look at the Lay side of this same event. I’ve decided to err on the side of the casinos and bookmakers. I’ll bet your horse doesn’t win, I put him to lose. Last time I looked, they constructed some pretty good casinos with this kind of thinking. And the good news is that you need everything to go right. I only need one thing to get you wrong. I also have another huge bonus. I have every other horse in the race running for me. So in a race of 15 runners, I’m glad one of 14 of them wins. If you have spent years backing horses and going home as a loser, it might be time to change teams and start putting horses.
I WANT TO BACK YOU THAT YOU CAN MAKE ME Wealthy?
The internet is full of countless computer programs, systems, books and manuals that supposedly give you a chance to retire. Most of them will take your money and give you little more than empty promises in return. These programs are not terrible, they just are not sophisticated enough to give you the necessary advantage to win. To be competitive you need to combine advanced technology with math and careful journaling.
Can this be done manually or on your home computer you ask? Certainly, but you need Santa’s little helpers who work for you to enter all the data. Also, make sure you use artificial intelligence computers. In other words, the computer learns from the results every day and makes corrections to the program when needed. No software program is guaranteed to work in the future. Racing is in a constant state of flux and change. It is imperative that you stay ahead of rule adjustments, bias tracking, weather, etc. otherwise you will be eaten up by change.
HOW THE ELECTION PROCESS WORKS
Keep in mind with play games, you must adopt a reverse strategy for assessing horses and racing conditions. You need to analyze how a horse will manage under existing track conditions. You have to look at race form. Is there much momentum in the race today? What part of the track should your jockey place the horse on?
Many people think they have a system, only to find that it doesn’t work all the time. To be validated as successful, your program or system must work on all lanes covering all types of racing at any time of the year.
If your systems are under performing, you must resist chasing your losses. This only leads to stupid decisions, and of course it is never good. Remember, scared money “NEVER WIN. “LIVE OF SPEECH AND SAVE FOR PEOPLE EMOTION.
We are good at what we do because all methods are 100% mechanical and subject to human emotions. Over 100,000 roots went into the Matrix profile to find out what makes a loser. This is the most important line of this article. You MUST take emotions out of the disability equation, unless of course you are a HAL 9000 computer. You only win by strictly trusting and following the numbers.
WHAT DO YOU WANT TO FEEL?
Before designing a system or method, outline your goals. Mine were very simple, but it took a few years to reach the goal.
1. Design a method that works everywhere. (All courses, weather conditions, class, artificial surface, grass, race types, maiden, bets, requirements, etc.)
2.Design a method that can work with Betting Robots. The only thing Bot needs to sort out is the odds. (Only put horses at 9.9 or less Betfair) Some people are not financially able to stay home and sit at their computer.
3. Keep consistent results throughout the year without losing strokes.
HOW TO PROVIDE A STOCK SYSTEM
After our database of over 100,000 races was in place, we had to decide what was important. To succeed in putting horses, we had to profile a loser. What were the key traits shared with the majority of the lost horses? Every event is independent of everyone else. First, we need to compare all records while assigning and subtracting points for past results. Not only do we need a profile of a loser, we also need to profile who has the best chance of winning.
In short, I want to give each horse a chance to win the race
Horse A = 75.00% winning odds – 25.00% loss of odds
Horse B = 66.66% winning odds – 33.33% loss of odds
Horse C = 58.33% winning odds – 41.67% loss of odds
Horse D = 55.60% winning odds – 44.40% loss of odds
Horse E = 38.90% winning odds – 61.11% loss of odds
Horse F = 30.60% winning odds – 69.40% loss of odds
Horse G = 27.80% winning odds – 72.22% loss of odds
Horse H = 11.11% winning odds – 88.88% loss of odds
Horse I = 8.33% winning odds – 91.67% loss of odds
Take a look at the raw data above, which of the horses is the least likely to win the race. What horses do you want to put? Is your answer to putting both horse “H” and horse “I”? In that case, you can sit in the corner and sit on the duvet. This is only part of the equation. You need to know what Betfair closing odds are to make this decision.
Horse selection “I” wins only 8% of the time. So that means that if you put “I”, you collect 92% of the time. It still sounds pretty good, a system where you win 92% of the time. But what are Betfair odds? If this horse goes to the post 150.0 to 1, you will be in big trouble. First, you never put horses at 150 to 1 unless you have an interest in the Royal Family Treasury. To win 100, make sure you have 15,000 in your trading account to cover the days when he wins.
If you continue with the example, if you only lost every hundred races, instead of the projected eight times (8%), you would still be negative 5,800.
You need to look for an acceptable payout percentage and decide the biggest amount you want to risk. Remember, the public is always the indicator of who wins, so the lower the odds, the more chance a horse has of winning. Therefore, many people will never put a horse under 3 or 4 to one.
I enjoy putting horses on 9.9 Betfair or less. This means my choices can be added to 9 to 1 or less. (If you are unfamiliar with Betfair odds, they add an additional 1.0 to each quoted odds representing the size of your bet)
My raw strike rate is about 83% plus or minus 2% percent. Here is an easy example. If we put in 100 runs, we win 8,300 with my fixed 83% strike rate. Looking at the last 20,000 selections, my average bet price loss on Betfair was 5.31. I expect to lose 17% of the time. By calculating my losses in 100 races I can expect to lose 7,327. (That’s 4.31 odds X 17 losers = 7,327). So the profit over 100 choices is 973 or 9.73% percent.
The secret is to flip your bankroll as many times as possible each month. Using my raw choices, I average 650 to 700 raw data views a month. Which means you can turn your bank over six to seven times every thirty days and transform those 973 into much more. These figures are not bad considering that the Bank of England only offers 1.7% a year when you subtract 3% inflation.
The secret to doubling your profits
The next secret is to double-insert low odd markers. As I’ve said before, because the market consists of a pool of opinions, the lower the odds, the more chance a horse has of winning. Our choices range from 3 to 1 or less, (4.0 Betfair) we are still showing a 77% strike. Not as good as our normal 84%, but you risk a significantly smaller portion of your bankroll on each bet. Double bets with short price choices increase your bottom line. If you lose 100 on an election that is 6.0, your loss will be 500. When you lose 200 on an election that is 3.5, your loss is also 500. But we have a big bonus here. When you win with 3.5 Betfair and you win 77% of the time, you collect twice as much as your normal bet or 200.
This is not an “get rich scheme” overnight. It’s a solid, step-by-step progression where your bankroll grows at a very steady pace. Make every bet unit the same amount, except for the double bet unit with post time odds of 4.0 Betfair or less. Start small and be comfortable with your betting unit.
You must have 40 to 80 units on your bankroll before you start. If you want to win 10 pr. Run, you need to set aside 400 to 800. If you start at the 100 level, conversely you will need 4,000 to 8,000. Do not increase your units until you have won at least half the amount on your starting bankroll. When a stake increase is appropriate, increase your bets only by 10% to 20%. Walk slowly and don’t become a pig. Remember, “Pigs get fat, but pigs get slaughtered”.
You may be able to improve my Raw Ratings and increase the strike rate with your own system. By either increasing the strike rate and thereby eliminating losers, you will exhaust your bottom line.
TIME TO Apply some filters
I have literally thousands of small filters in my database that I can apply to hopeful improvements to my Raw Numbers. A filter example is: “Remove any runner who has won more than 90% of his roots.” Or: “Remove all runners who finished in second place in their last race.” There are literally thousands of filters you can dream of to improve Raw Ratings.
Some are completely useless while others can seriously improve your results. Before using filters, you must have enough data to prove your conclusion. I have found by applying 5 filters, I can increase my strike rate by about 3% to 4%. This may not sound like much, but it makes a huge difference. At the end of an average month, I win almost exactly the same amount of dollars or pounds as with Raw Numbers. But I only want about a third as many choices; however, my return on investment will triple,
Average monthly return with a 100 bet using Raw Numbers
Strike Rate 83.9% – Option 524 – Average Profit 7.633 -13.7% Return
Average monthly return with a bet of £ 100 using filtered raw numbers
Strike rate 87.9% – Option 160 – Average profit 6,400 – 38.2% return
As you can see, improving your strike rate by a few points and eliminating unnecessary choices can actually triple your minimum share. Again, be very careful every time you filter wide base winning raw numbers. Having a strike of 83.9% over 1,000 runs is much more impressive than a strike of 87.9% over 100 runs.
I myself have fallen into that over-filtration trap. At one point, I applied over 30 different filters. Short-term success was great, but the numbers will catch up to you if you are not careful. Take your time, do your research, and trust the numbers.